Showing posts with label negative studies. Show all posts
Showing posts with label negative studies. Show all posts

Thursday, January 5, 2017

RCT Autopsy: The Differential Diagnosis of a Negative Trial

At many institutions, Journal Clubs meet to dissect a trial after its results are published to look for flaws, biases, shortcomings, limitations.  Beyond the dissemination of the informational content of the articles that are reviewed, Journal Clubs serve as a reiteration and extension of the limitations part of the article discussion.  Unless they result in a letter to the editor, or a new peer-reviewed article about the limitations of the trial that was discussed, the debates of Journal Club begin a headlong recession into obscurity soon after the meeting adjourns.

The proliferation and popularity of online media has led to what amounts to a real-time, longitudinally documented Journal Club.  Named “post-publication peer review” (PPPR), it consists of blog posts, podcasts and videocasts, comments on research journal websites, remarks on online media outlets, and websites dedicated specifically to PPPR.  Like a traditional Journal Club, PPPR seeks to redress any deficiencies in the traditional peer review process that lead to shortcomings or errors in the reporting or interpretation of a research study.

PPPR following publication of a “positive” trial, that is one where the authors conclude that their a priori criteria for rejecting the null hypothesis were met, is oftentimes directed at the identification of a host of biases in the design, conduct, and analysis of the trial that may have led to a “false positive” trial.  False positive trials are those in which either a type I error has occurred (the null hypothesis was rejected even though it is true and no difference between groups exists), or the structure of the experiment was biased in such a way as that the experiment and its statistics cannot be informative.  The biases that cause structural problems in a trial are manifold, and I may attempt to delineate them at some point in the future.  Because it is a simpler task, I will here attempt to list a differential diagnosis that people may use in PPPRs of “negative” trials.

Sunday, April 6, 2014

Underperforming the Market: Why Researchers are Worse than Professional Stock Pickers and A Way Out

I was reading in the NYT yesterday a story about Warren Buffet and how the Oracle of Omaha has trailed the S&P 500 for four of the last five years.  It was based on an analysis done by a statistician who runs a blog called Statistical Ideas, which has a post on p-values that links to this Nature article a couple of months back that describes how we can be misled by P-values.  And all of this got me thinking.

We have a dual problem in medical research:  a.)  of conceiving alternative hypotheses which cannot be confirmed in large trials free of bias;  and b.) not being able to replicate the findings of positive trials.  What are the reasons for this?